College football’s 2025-26 postseason continues on Friday night with Arizona and SMU meeting in the Holiday Bowl. This San Diego bowl has a track record of producing close and high-scoring matchups, so this battle between the Wildcats and Mustangs could be an entertaining affair.
Arizona rebounded in a big way after a disappointing 4-8 season in coach Brent Brennan’s debut last year. After an offseason of staff changes and transfer additions, the Wildcats picked up quality wins against Kansas State, Cincinnati, and Arizona State en route to a 9-3 record.
SMU was expected to take a step back in ‘25 after making the ACC Championship Game and College Football Playoff last year. However, coach Rhett Lashlee turned in another stellar coaching effort, keeping the Mustangs in the mix for a spot in the league title game until late November. SMU knocked off the ACC’s only playoff team (Miami) in early November and defeated Clemson and Louisville to finish 8-4.
The all-time series between Arizona and SMU is tied at 1-1. These two teams have not played since 1985. The Mustangs have lost their last five postseason appearances. The Wildcats are 4-2 in their last six bowl trips.
Holiday Bowl: Arizona vs. SMU Odds, Details
Location: Snapdragon Stadium Stadium in San Diego, Calif.Kickoff: Friday, Jan. 2 at 8 p.m. ETTV: FoxSpread: Arizona -1.5
Over/Under: 52.5Announcers: Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt, Jenny Taft
Arizona vs. SMU: Keys to Victory
Why Arizona Will Win the Holiday Bowl
A much-improved offense was crucial to Arizona’s ‘25 turnaround, and this unit will give SMU’s defense plenty of fits on Friday night. Quarterback Noah Fifita (258.8 total yards a game) ranks sixth in the Big 12 in total offense, and the one-two punch of running backs Ismail Mahdi (791 yards) and Kedrick Reescano (394) will test a SMU defense ranked fourth in the ACC against the run.
The Wildcats have a strong all-around collection of weapons on the outside that includes receivers Kris Hutson (57 receptions), Javin Whatley (38), Tre Spivey (21), and Chris Hunter (25). Between Fifita’s legs and passing ability, the ground attack, and versatility of the weapons, Arizona’s offense has all of the necessary components to stress a SMU defense that ranked No. 50 nationally in success rate.
In addition to the offensive turnaround, defensive improvement also fueled Arizona’s nine-win campaign. Under new coordinator Danny Gonzales, the Wildcats ranked second in the Big 12 in fewest yards per play allowed (4.6) and third in fewest points allowed per contest (18.9). This unit won’t tally a huge number of sacks on the stat sheet, but Arizona has thrived at getting off the field on third downs and made critical stops in the red zone. SMU leads the ACC in per-game production through the air, but the Wildcats will counter with a strong pass defense that’s allowed just nine scores all year.
Why SMU Will Win the Holiday Bowl
Arizona’s defense was one of the better units in the Big 12 this year, but SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings (284.4 total yards a game) will stress this unit on Friday night. The junior connected on 66.1 percent of his throws for 3,363 yards and 26 touchdowns to just 10 picks in ’25.
The Mustangs will test the Wildcats’ standout secondary with depth at receiver that includes Jordan Hudson (56 catches), Romello Brinson (43), and Yamir Knight (47). Tight end RJ Maryland declared for the NFL, but Matthew Hibner (29 receptions) still keeps a threat at the position for Jennings.
SMU’s defense won’t have standout safety Isaiah Nwokobia due to surgery, but this unit is still equipped to slow Arizona’s offense. The Mustangs were one of the top pressure teams in the ACC with 34 sacks generated, while this group did not allow much in the way of big plays (just seven of 40-plus yards). Also, Lashlee’s defense did not allow a team to rush for more than 165 yards in a game this season and ranked No. 1 in the ACC in red zone defense.
Holiday Bowl Prediction: Arizona 27, SMU 24
Turnover margin is an x-factor to watch. Arizona State is plus-16 this season, while SMU is plus-11. Which team will make a big mistake that could decide this game? On paper, this could be one of the biggest tossups of bowl season. Opt outs are expected prior to kickoff, which could alter the outlook for either side.
Arizona vs. SMU Prediction: Holiday Bowl Preview
