Miami vs. Indiana Prediction: College Football Playoff National Championship Preview

The 2025-26 college football season is down to its final game, as Indiana takes on Miami on Monday night to decide the national championship. This game takes place in Hard Rock Stadium – the Hurricanes home venue – with the Hoosiers favored by more than a touchdown.
A win on Monday night would clinch the first national title in Indiana’s program history. The Hoosiers have been on a meteoric rise under coach Curt Cignetti over the last two seasons, going 26-2 in that span and earning back-to-back playoff trips. After just reaching the 12-team field last year, Indiana was even better in ‘26. Behind Heisman Trophy winner and quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the Hoosiers capped a perfect 13-0 regular season with a victory over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. Cignetti’s team claimed the No. 1 seed as a result of that 13-0 mark and proceeded to dominate its playoff contests against Alabama (Rose Bowl) and Oregon (Peach Bowl) by a combined score of 94-25.
Miami’s path to the national title game was filled with significantly more twists and turns than the one Indiana took in ‘25. The ‘Canes were the last team into the 12-team field – a controversial selection over Notre Dame after ranking behind the Fighting Irish in the selection committee’s previous five rankings. A head-to-head win over Notre Dame in Week 1 proved to be the deciding factor, but coach Mario Cristobal’s team made things interesting during the regular season with puzzling losses to Louisville and SMU. However, Miami has certainly earned its appearance in the title game. The path to Monday night started with a 10-3 slugfest win over Texas A&M in College Station in the first round, followed by a 24-14 upset of Ohio State in the quarterfinals, and a 31-27 last-minute win over Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal last week.
Indiana and Miami have played only two previous times on the gridiron, with the series tied at one victory apiece. The Hoosiers have never won a national title in college football. The Hurricanes have five claimed national championships, including the 2001 BCS title over Nebraska.
Related: 5 Reasons Why Indiana Will Win | 5 Reasons Why Miami Will Win
Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
Kickoff: Monday, Jan. 19 at 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Indiana -8.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Announcers: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Holly Rowe, Molly McGrath
Miami vs. Indiana: Keys to Victory
Why Miami Will Win the National Championship
The formula for Miami is simple: Lean on what got you to this contest. The Hurricanes have relied heavily on their strength in the trenches to win three consecutive playoff games, and the recipe for an upset starts here on Monday night.
When Miami has the ball, a massive offensive line needs to clear lanes for running back Mark Fletcher and continue its standout pass protection of quarterback Carson Beck. Indiana’s defense thrives at creating havoc and will throw a ton of looks at Beck to get pressure. The Hoosiers allowed only two opponents (Old Dominion and Penn State) to rush for more than 100 yards this season. Fletcher and backfield mate CharMar Brown won’t necessarily break off a ton of big plays on Monday night but the ability to gain consistent yardage to stay in manageable situations for Beck is a must. If the ‘Canes can win the physical battle early and control time of possession, it sets up for the offensive line to take control in the fourth quarter.
The defensive trenches have also fueled this Miami run to the national championship. Standouts Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor will be a handful for Indiana’s offensive line, which coordinator Corey Hetherman hopes can create havoc to disrupt quarterback Fernando Mendoza’s timing. The Hurricanes hold opponents to just 86.5 rushing yards a contest, while Indiana ranks No. 1 in the Big Ten in rushing offense (218.3 yards a game). The combination of stopping the run on early downs and pressuring Mendoza is a winning formula for Cristobal.
An intriguing x-factor to watch: Hetherman worked at James Madison under Cignetti for three seasons. Could that familiarity help Miami’s defense slow Indiana a bit?
Beck is only averaging 169.7 passing yards per contest in this playoff run, but he’s tossed only one pick in three games and has made the timely plays necessary to put Miami over the top, including a touchdown run to beat Ole Miss in the final minute. The senior faces a tough assignment against a stingy Indiana secondary. However, if Beck can continue his mistake-free ball and distribute the ball in space to receiver Malachi Toney in manageable down-and-distance situations, the ‘Canes can keep the chains moving and continue their high success rate (No. 37 nationally).
Related: ‘Not Done With Hard Rock’: How Miami Resolved to Return Home for Title Game
Why Indiana Will Win the National Championship
If Indiana plays the way it has throughout the ‘25 season, that performance would be more than enough to win on Monday night. The Hoosiers have dominated for most of the year, and Cignetti has assembled a roster that’s capable of winning with either side of the ball. Simply, Indiana is favored by over a touchdown for a reason. And Cignetti always has his teams prepared and playing mistake-free ball.
Mendoza is clearly the headliner for Indiana’s offense, but this unit leads the Big Ten in rushing (218.3 yards a game) behind running backs Roman Hemby, Kaelon Black, and Khobie Martin. The strength of Miami’s defense rests up front with a stout rush defense and pass rush. The Hoosiers need to get Hemby and the rest of the backfield on track and win up front to protect Mendoza.
Considering Miami’s strength in the trenches, Cignetti and coordinator Mike Shanahan are likely to get the ball out of Mendoza’s hands quickly. On the outside, receivers Charlie Becker, E.J. Williams, Elijah Sarratt, and Omar Cooper have a tough matchup against a standout ‘Canes secondary. But with Mendoza’s ability to put the ball into tight windows, along with the receivers capable of making contested catches, the passing game should eventually find its rhythm.
Indiana’s defense ranks second nationally in fewest points allowed (11.1) and surrenders just 4.6 yards a snap. Coordinator Bryant Haines’ group thrives at creating negative plays (128 tackles for loss this year) and doesn’t allow opposing offenses to break many tackles. That’s crucial on Monday night, as Miami’s offensive line and rushing attack will challenge the Hoosiers’ front. And on passing downs, the ‘Canes want to get receiver Malachi Toney in space. Limiting yards after catch and not allowing a bunch of broken tackles are a must.
To win on Monday night, Indiana’s defense likely needs to do two things: Create consistent pressure on quarterback Carson Beck and stuff the run. Considering the track record this season, the Hoosiers are more than equipped to do just that.
Related: Indiana’s Unsung Defense is Screaming for Vengeance
National Championship Prediction: Indiana 27, Miami 20
Monday night’s matchup isn’t short on intrigue. Will Indiana win its first national title? Or will Miami return to the top of college football? Although the Hoosiers are favored by more than a touchdown, the Hurricanes can pull off the upset if they win in the trenches, Toney makes a couple of big plays, and the defense generates a takeaway or two from Mendoza. The path is there, but Cignetti and Indiana won’t make the big mistake, and Mendoza delivers in the fourth quarter to send the title back to Bloomington.