Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State Prediction: Duke’s Mayo Bowl Preview

College football’s 2025-26 postseason enters its final stretch, as Wake Forest and Mississippi State square off in Charlotte for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl on Friday. Considering both teams were forced to navigate significant roster turnover and change prior to the ‘25 season, along with low preseason expectations, it’s a surprise to see the Demon Deacons and Bulldogs meeting in this bowl matchup.
Thanks to a couple of teams opting out of the postseason, along with the program’s APR scores, Mississippi State earned a trip to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl with a 5-7 record. Despite the losing mark, the Bulldogs made considerable progress in coach Jeff Lebby’s second season in Starkville. After a 2-10 mark last fall, Mississippi State picked off Arizona State (24-20) and defeated Arkansas in SEC play (38-35) to nearly reach .500. Lebby’s team lost three games by one score, including a 45-38 loss to Texas in overtime on Oct. 25.
Wake Forest was picked near the bottom of the ACC in ‘25, as the program was navigating a coaching change after Dave Clawson’s retirement and Jake Dickert’s arrival from Washington State. Dickert exceeded all expectations in his debut in Winston-Salem with an 8-4 record, which included a win over Virginia (16-9) on Nov. 8.
This game marks Mississippi State’s first bowl trip since ‘22. The Bulldogs are 8-5 in postseason appearances since ‘10. The Demon Deacons are 5-2 in their last seven bowl treks. Mississippi State holds a 1-0 series edge over Wake Forest. These two teams previously met in the ‘11 Music City Bowl, with the Bulldogs winning 23-17.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State Odds, Details
Location: Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C.
Kickoff: Friday, Jan. 2 at 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Mississippi State -3
Over/Under: 53.5
Announcers: Anish Shroff, Andre Ware, Paul Carcaterra
Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State: Keys to Victory
Why Wake Forest Will Win The Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest’s offense will miss two key cogs on Friday night, as running back Demond Claiborne (907 yards) opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft, and receiver Chris Barnes (39 catches for 547 yards) hit the transfer portal.
Although Dickert’s squad is down a couple of playmakers, quarterback Robby Ashford (243 total yards a game) should find room to operate on the ground and through the air against a suspect Mississippi State defense. Ashford still has plenty of help at the skill spots with running back Ty Clark (232 yards in limited snaps) and receiver Carlos Hernandez (34 catches for 538 yards).
A big game from Ashford is a must if Wake Forest is going to come out on top on the scoreboard, but Wake Forest’s defense will have to control the pace of this game. Mississippi State’s offense can push the tempo and pace of this contest, and the Demon Deacons can’t afford to get into a back-and-forth high-scoring affair.
Dickert’s defense won’t have standout defensive lineman Mateen Ibirogba (transfer), but the bulk of this unit is expected to be available. In the regular season, Wake Forest thrived at creating havoc up front with 86 tackles for a loss, which will test a suspect Mississippi State offensive line. The Demon Deacons also limited teams to 4.5 yards a play and 21.5 points a contest.
The formula for Dickert’s team on Friday night is simple: Control the pace of the game with Ashford and limit Mississippi State’s possessions. And on defense, contain the explosive ability of Taylor and pressure the Bulldogs in the trenches.
Why Mississippi State Will Win The Duke’s Mayo Bowl
The extra time to prepare is a huge benefit to Mississippi State. True freshman quarterback Kamario Taylor shined in limited snaps throughout the regular season and replaced Blake Shapen as the team’s starter in the finale against Ole Miss. Taylor ended ‘25 with 388 passing yards and four scores and 395 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground.
Bowl practices should allow Lebby to help Taylor’s development and prepare for a defense that ranked No. 8 nationally in success rate. In addition to helping Taylor’s growth, the Bulldogs can test Wake Forest’s standout defense with the one-two punch of running backs Fluff Bothwell (639 yards) and Davon Booth (553). On the outside, Taylor can spread the ball to receivers Brenen Thompson (53 catches) and Anthony Evans III (63), and tight end Seydou Traore (34).
Mississippi State’s defense is navigating transition for this game, as coordinator Coleman Hutzler was dismissed following the loss to Ole Miss. Co-defensive coordinator Matt Barnes will call plays on Friday for a unit that struggled (29.2 points a game allowed) in the regular season. Although this defense is still littered with question marks, Wake Forest averaged only 5.01 yards a play against ACC opponents and won’t have leading rusher Demond Claiborne (907 yards) and No. 1 receiver Chris Barnes (547 yards). The Demon Deacons missing two key pieces should help Mississippi State’s defense defend this unit more effectively on Jan. 2.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl Prediction: Mississippi State 27, Wake Forest 24
Considering both teams exceeded most expectations by reaching the postseason, motivation won’t be lacking on either side. The battle of Mississippi State’s offense against Wake Forest’s standout defense will decide this matchup. The guess here is a tight game is decided by Taylor making a couple of plays in the fourth quarter to give Lebby’s team a close victory.