As the Patriots get set to face Miami to close out the regular season, they can finish in three different places in the playoff picture.
As a division champ — they clinched the AFC East last week — they’re guaranteed a top four seed by rule.
The Patriots (13-3) can finish as either the No. 1, 2 or 3. A win guarantees New England no worse than the No. 2. They’d need help to get the No. 1.
The winner of Sunday’s game between Baltimore (8-8) and Pittsburgh (9-7) will be the AFC North champ and the No. 4 seed.
Here are the seeds where the Patriots can finish in and how:
The Patriots (13-3) would get the No. 1 seed if:
They beat the Dolphins and the Broncos (13-3) lose to the Chargers in Denver — Both games are at 4:25 p.m.
The No. 1 seed has a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
The Patriots would get the No. 2 seed if:
The Patriots beat the Dolphins, AND the Broncos beat the Chargers — Denver holds the tie-breaker (winning percentage vs. common opponents) if they finish with the same record as New England.
The Patriots lose to the Dolphins, AND the Jaguars lose to the Titans — Jacksonville plays lowly Tennessee at 1 p.m., so the Patriots will already know how this played out when they take the field.
The Patriots would get the No. 3 seed if:
The Patriots lose to the Dolphins, AND the Jaguars beat the Titans — Jacksonville would hold the tie-breaker if they finish with the same record because they’d have the same record against common opponents and the Jaguars would have a better conference record.
Who the Patriots could face:
The No. 2 seed will face the No. 7 seed (the lowest-seeded wild card team) and the No. 3 seed will face the No. 6.
The No. 6 and 7 seeds could be Buffalo, Houston or the Los Angeles Chargers, who are each 11-5.
Wild Card
The relevant games among those teams are:
Indianapolis at Houston, 1
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo, 4:25.
L.A. Chargers at Denver, 4:25
Houston is currently the No. 5 seed and would hold that spot with a win over the Colts. Indianapolis (8-8) is starting rookie quarterback Riley Leonard for the first time and has been eliminated from the playoffs. The Texans could still win the AFC South with a win and a Jacksonville loss.
The Chargers are currently the No. 6, but are at Denver. They’d have to pull an upset of for the Bills to be upset to hold the No. 6 spot.
The Bills enter Week 18 as the No. 7 seed, but they’re facing a Jets team that is motivated to lose for draft position and hasn’t been good even when they’re trying. Buffalo could chose to rest key starters, but even then might still beat the Jets.
So the Bills could leapfrog the Chargers into the No. 6 win a win and an L.A. loss.
The AFC playoff picture heading into Week 18:
AFC
Top Seed with bye: Denver Broncos* (13-3)
First round matchups:
No. 2 New England Patriots* (13-3) vs. No. 7 Buffalo Bills (11-5)*
No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)* vs. No. 6 Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)*
No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) vs. No. 5 Houston Texans (11-5)*
*-clinched a playoff berth
AFC Playoffs: What seed Patriots can finish at and who they could face
